Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 11.474617 13.152465 14.962779 17.057777 19.411886 21.971814 24.962609
2025-05-04 8.866985 11.103376 13.707006 16.948241 20.860103 25.413126 31.096755
2025-05-11 7.439996 9.867481 12.835516 16.705879 21.591010 27.520939 35.229224
2025-05-18 6.457926 9.017934 12.287715 16.729753 22.560147 29.899657 39.777426
2025-05-25 5.776235 8.435297 11.962147 16.924374 23.657476 32.396912 44.505214
2025-06-01 5.148475 7.839741 11.536698 16.909247 24.424126 34.453587 48.718368
2025-06-08 4.581932 7.257874 11.056790 16.746457 24.931977 36.139613 52.466780
2025-06-15 4.189174 6.881474 10.820774 16.884991 25.834402 38.373363 57.036163
2025-06-22 3.942782 6.695950 10.836709 17.371675 27.239573 41.353550 62.766366
2025-06-29 3.561078 6.258355 10.431036 17.185402 27.624266 42.868386 66.443899
2025-07-06 3.083482 5.617001 9.653351 16.361070 26.979170 42.819144 67.801075
2025-07-13 2.923557 5.486033 9.668595 16.770519 28.234100 45.633414 73.512297
2025-07-20 2.750382 5.321440 9.623753 17.091547 29.387345 48.379339 79.300065
2025-07-27 2.515459 5.025587 9.336529 16.992333 29.858990 50.093987 83.582342
2025-08-03 2.281930 4.707294 8.981603 16.745792 30.060528 51.372747 87.211682
2025-08-10 2.115522 4.496899 8.796060 16.770977 30.704494 53.372106 92.052712
2025-08-17 1.989986 4.351807 8.713620 16.965584 31.636405 55.866568 97.778887
2025-08-24 1.846426 4.156719 8.523232 16.950578 32.198884 57.768087 102.602851
2025-08-31 1.696930 3.934343 8.263207 16.787378 32.484958 59.209535 106.709397
2025-09-07 1.597925 3.806372 8.171649 16.926234 33.307805 61.581560 112.452221
2025-09-14 1.546529 3.774472 8.263423 17.413975 34.781035 65.121196 120.301004
2025-09-21 1.425150 3.578107 8.013584 17.227297 35.002494 66.491181 124.471231
2025-09-28 1.250267 3.243639 7.457093 16.401160 33.981581 65.622978 124.706359